How measurement helped me decide whether to go to university
3 min read
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and how you can apply the same principle on seamingly impossible or hard decisions.
My journey
I started programming as a young teenager. Initially, I developed static websites using HTML, CSS and JavaScript. Later, I tried myself at creating small mobile apps in Unity and C#. Although none of these were ever published, I learnt something from each project.
When I got my first gaming computer, I started playing video games and quickly became addicted to them. But my interest in programming didn’t stop there. Rather than just playing, I started building tools for the games I played. For example, I developed auctionhouse scrapers and macros for games such as Minecraft Hypixel Skyblock. I also developed bots that analysed the Steam community market and other third-party websites in order to buy and sell CS:GO skins and grow my inventory. In the process, I became familiar with concepts such as APIs, data parsing and system integration. Although I didn’t fully understand their real purpose yet. Up to that point, I had taught myself everything through YouTube videos or technical documentation.
I began a vocational training as a software developer in 2021. Technically, I already knew how to code, but I didn’t know how to build professional and maintainable software. During those years, I focused on closing this gap, learning in-depth about architecture, documentation, communication, long-term thinking and many other important concepts, all under the guidance of excellent mentors.
Today, I am a software architect and a vocational trainer. I am currently working towards becoming a volunteer examiner at my local IHK. I work with modern technologies, experiment with LLMs, build web systems, migrate legacy systems and continuously learn. I have freedom, responsibility and I feel that I am growing and learning something new almost every day. And yet, one question keeps coming back to my mind: Should I go to university?
The goal
Despite all the experience I’ve gained, the question of whether to go to university still feels daunting. It’s one of those decisions that seems impossible to make. To help me make a more informed decision, I want to apply the principle of measuring the ‘intangible’. I want to reduce uncertainty and gain a better understanding of the potential outcomes. It’s not about perfectly predicting the future. It’s about gathering enough information and perspective to make a more informed choice, so that I can move forward without being paralysed by ‘what ifs’. I also intend to document this process and share the information I collect. Both to help myself and to assist others who may face similar decisions.
Constraints
Before I can consider my options, it is important to acknowledge the factors that I can’t or don’t want to change.
- I want to study in person, not remotely.
- I will need to work alongside my studies to cover living expenses and tuition fees.
- I don’t want to move to another city.
Recognizing these factors early helps to focus on the decisions I can influence, rather than wasting energy on hypotheticals.
Breaking it down
The question Should I go to university? seems straightforward. Yet it’s actually a difficult decision involving many uncertainties and assumptions. The first step to making it measurable is to reframe the decision in concrete terms. Rather than asking whether university is ‘good’ or ‘worth it’, I broke the question down into smaller, quantifiable parts.
- How much will I benefit from structured, targeted learning compared to autodidactic, professional learning?
- How likely is it that attending university will open new career opportunities?
- How much can I expand my social network with fellow students or professors?
- How much will an academic degree enhance my reputation or external recognition in the industry?
- How much will university improve my career flexibility and opportunities?
- How much will university broaden my professional skillset and job profile?
- How likely is it that attending university will help me remain relevant in my field over the long term?
- What will be the financial impact of studying in terms of tuition, living costs, and potential income changes?
- How much time, effort, and stress will university require?
- How much might my current professional responsibilities be limited while I am studying?
- How much could my career progression be delayed by spending time at university?
- How likely am I to experience burnout, reduced motivation or mental strain during my studies?
- How much will my social life, time with friends and family and personal projects be affected by studying?
- How likely is it that my employer will continue to trust me with important responsibilities while I am attending university?
- How satisfied will I feel personally during and after completing my studies?
Estimate
| Question | Unit / Scale | Best Case | Most Likely | Worst Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much will I benefit from structured, targeted learning compared to autodidactic, professional learning? | 1-10 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| How likely is it that attending university will open new career opportunities? | % | 50% | 25% | 0% |
| How much can I expand my social network with fellow students or professors? | 1-10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| How much will an academic degree enhance my reputation or external recognition in the industry? | 1-10 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| How much will university improve my career flexibility and opportunities? | 1-10 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| How much will university broaden my professional skillset and job profile? | 1-10 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| How likely is it that attending university will help me remain relevant in my field over the long term? | % | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| What will be the financial impact of studying in terms of tuition, living costs, and potential income changes? | € | +10,000 | +2,500 | -10,000 |
| How much time, effort, and stress will university require? | hours/week | 20 | 25 | 40 |
| How much might my current professional responsibilities be limited while I am studying? | 1-10 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| How much could my career progression be delayed by spending time at university? | years | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| How likely am I to experience burnout, reduced motivation or mental strain during my studies? | 1-10 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| How much will my social life, time with friends and family and personal projects be affected by studying? | 1-10 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| How likely is it that my employer will continue to trust me with important responsibilities while I am attending university? | % | 90% | 70% | 40% |
| How satisfied will I feel personally during and after completing my studies? | 1-10 | 9 | 7 | 4 |
Weigh
| Question | Most Likely | Weight | Normalized Score (0-1) | Weighted Normalized Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much will I benefit from structured, targeted learning compared to autodidactic, professional learning? | 6 | 5 | 0.667 | 3.33 |
| How likely is it that attending university will open new career opportunities? | 25% | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| How much can I expand my social network with fellow students or professors? | 4 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| How much will an academic degree enhance my reputation or external recognition in the industry? | 6 | 3 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| How much will university improve my career flexibility and opportunities? | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| How much will university broaden my professional skillset and job profile? | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| How likely is it that attending university will help me remain relevant in my field over the long term? | 30% | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| What will be the financial impact of studying in terms of tuition, living costs, and potential income changes? | +2,500 | 5 | 0.625 | 3.125 |
| How much time, effort, and stress will university require? | 25 | 4 | 0.75 | 3.0 |
| How much might my current professional responsibilities be limited while I am studying? | 5 | 4 | 0.444 | 1.776 |
| How much could my career progression be delayed by spending time at university? | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| How likely am I to experience burnout, reduced motivation or mental strain during my studies? | 4 | 4 | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| How much will my social life, time with friends and family and personal projects be affected by studying? | 4 | 3 | 0.667 | 2.0 |
| How likely is it that my employer will continue to trust me with important responsibilities while I am attending university? | 70% | 4 | 0.667 | 2.668 |
| How satisfied will I feel personally during and after completing my studies? | 7 | 5 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
Conclusion
I am 24 this year and have already established a solid foundation in software development, architectural design and vocational training. I have daily opportunities to learn, both formally and informally. My employer provides training and gives me the freedom to work on challenging projects. Outside of work, I expand my knowledge continuously through books, podcasts, YouTube videos and personal projects.
While university could offer structured learning, networking opportunities and qualifications, the drawbacks in terms of time, stress, delayed career progression and financial cost outweigh the benefits for me at this stage in my life. I am not interested in only obtaining a degree or certificate. I have been teaching myself programming and exploring advanced concepts since my teenage years. Why would I stop now? I am already skilled at what I do and I improve every day.
I have the freedom to design my own learning journey and align it with my career goals. I can explore new technologies, take on challenging projects and gain valuable experience. I can pursue certifications, attend workshops and participate in professional communities whenever I choose, ensuring that I remain up to date with developments in my field. At the same time, I maintain a balanced social and professional life.
Ultimately, I have decided not to go to university. Instead, I will focus on maximising self-directed learning, leveraging my work environment and growing through real-world projects. Still it’s never too late to go to university. Perhaps in another year.